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| Stress election's cost, pollsters
tell Davis |
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| July 25, 2003 |
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By Margaret Talev
The
Sacramento Bee
With a recall election now a reality, Gov. Gray Davis
may be in for the political fight of his life.
But pollsters for the unpopular incumbent are telling
him he can survive in this Democratic-dominated state
if he hammers on the $30 million-plus tab for a special
election, characterizes the recall as a right-wing Republican
conspiracy and argues that his ouster would set off a
period of political uncertainty sure to further erode
state finances, public schools and health care services.
"It is important to note that the cost argument works
best with both our base (Democrats) and swing voters and
should be used at every opportunity," pollsters Paul
Maslin and Ben Tulchin say in a three-page memo distributed
to recall opponents and obtained Thursday by The Bee.
They urge the governor's supporters to "emphasize
cost in any and every message."
Another memo out Thursday, this one by GOP strategist
Frank Luntz, who is advising recall advocates, supported
many of the Democratic pollsters' findings.
Nevertheless, Luntz predicted, the recall would succeed
so long as voter turnout for the Oct. 7 special election
is low.
Support for the recall election, the first against a California
governor and only the second against an American governor,
is being driven by partisan differences, voter dissatisfaction
with poor state finances and Davis' 23 percent favorability
rating.
Davis, in Los Angeles on Thursday to meet with law enforcement
officials, cast himself as a fallible leader but a better
alternative than his would-be successors.
"While (voters) have problems with me, while I've
made mistakes ... I don't think they're going to replace
my progressive agenda with a conservative agenda,"
Davis told reporters.
The Maslin memo, dated July 22, suggests the added taxpayer
cost of a special election could draw the most anti-recall
sentiment from voters, especially if they are told the
tab could swell to $60 million. The California secretary
of state's office has estimated the cost at $30 million
to $35 million.
Asked in a telephone interview to substantiate the new,
higher figure, Maslin attributed it to unforeseen costs
at county elections offices.
With a special election certified and a date set, Davis'
campaign team on Thursday seemed to be immediately putting
Maslin's advice to work.
They announced they would dissolve one anti-recall group,
Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall, and launch a
new committee, Californians Against the Costly Recall.
The Maslin memo had suggested an "ideal sound bite"
as follows: "The recall will cost taxpayers an additional
$30 (million) to $60 million, and is a partisan effort
by Republicans to pursue their conservative agenda."
A statement from the new committee used this wording:
"The recall effort has been thrust upon Californians
by a band of Republicans willing to force taxpayers to
spend anywhere from $30 (million) to $60 million in pursuit
of a conservative agenda."
David Gilliard, director of the pro-recall group Rescue
California, said the cost of a special election was "a
small investment to change the direction of California
government. It's less than a $1 a person."
Maslin and Tulchin suggested Davis back away from calling
the recall bid "unfair," "a waste of time"
or "sour grapes," saying those arguments may
rub voters the wrong way.
They also warned that targeting the conservative ideology
and juvenile arrest record of Darrell Issa, a Southern
California congressman who has financed much of the recall
campaign and announced he will run against Davis, is not
the most productive use of resources. Several other Republicans,
including former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and
actor and self-described moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger,
also are considering running.
Maslin declined to release the polling or focus group
research that apparently led to his memo's recommendations.
The memo suggested the governor focus on the state's most
populous and Democratic centers, in Los Angeles and the
Bay Area.
With recent polls showing recall support at about 50 percent,
the memo concluded Davis would beat it if he won over
some "wayward Democrats" and independent voters.
Republican strategist Luntz offered this alternate take.
"If the recall were held today," Luntz wrote,
"based on all the data taken as a whole, Gray Davis
would be recalled."
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Sharon Davis'
Attack Blog |
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